Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, functions as an integrated downstream energy company. Valued at $50.4 billion by market cap, the company refines, supplies, markets, and transports petroleum products.

Shares of refining giant have underperformed the broader market over the past year. MPC has declined 6.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 12.5%. However, in 2025, MPC stock is up 17.7%, surpassing the SPX’s 1.3% rise on a YTD basis. 

Narrowing the focus, MPC’s outperformance is apparent compared to the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK). The exchange-traded fund has declined about 17.8% over the past year. Moreover, MPC’s double-digit returns on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 8.9% gains over the same time frame.

On May 6, MPC shares closed up marginally after reporting its Q1 results. Its loss of $0.24 per share topped Wall Street expectations of a loss of $0.63 per share. The company’s revenue stood at $31.9 billion, down 4.1% year over year. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect MPC’s EPS to decline 29% to $6.89 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.

Among the 18 analysts covering MPC stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, and six “Holds.”

The configuration is consistent over the past three months. 

On May 13, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) analyst Roger Read kept an “Overweight” rating on MPC and raised the price target to $180, implying a potential upside of 9.7% from current levels.

While MPC currently trades above its mean price target of $163.78, the Street-high price target of $184 suggests a 12.1% upside potential.