Semiconductor stocks have dominated headlines as the artificial intelligence and data-center boom has driven unprecedented demand. Yet not all chipmakers have enjoyed the same tailwinds, and Intel’s (INTC) market footprint is eroding faster than many expected.

A new Citi research note reveals Intel’s processor market share has slumped to 65.3% in Q1 2025, its weakest position since 2002. Rival Arm (ARM) oosted its global unit shipments to 13.6%, up from 10.8% last quarter, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slid to 21.1%.

Despite a broader chip-sector rally fueled by the U.S.-China tariff détente and surging AI partnerships, Citi has stayed neutral on Intel. Analysts warn that the market share erosion will persist unless new CEO Lip-Bu Tan can help the company reverse course.

With Intel at a two-decade low in market share and rivals pressing every advantage, should investors consider selling INTC stock now, or hold on for a potential turnaround?

About Intel Stock

Founded in 1968, Intel is a leading semiconductor company that designs, manufactures, and sells CPUs and related components for both business and consumer markets. Despite its storied history, a series of costly missteps in this capital-intensive industry has driven its market cap down to just over $94 billion.

Lately, Intel’s fledgling Foundry business has landed some high-profile customers, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), to produce future chips using its Intel 18A process. The company has also secured deals for its advanced packaging technology, with related revenue expected to ramp up in the second half of 2025.

Intel’s Foundry arm remains the company’s big challenge and is still unprofitable. However, recently, management says they aim to break even in 2027 alongside its 14A and 18A-P rollouts. It reaffirmed that Panther Lake, its first 1.8 nm-class 18A product, ships late this year. 

After a strong start to 2024, Intel shares surged to nearly $35 in mid-July before falling about 33% over the past 12 months amid leadership changes and Foundry setbacks. More recently, the stock has started to recover alongside the broader tech sector, gaining roughly 8% year to date, helped by optimism around potential tariff relief.

Intel Delivered Mixed Q1 Results 

On April 24, Intel reported its first quarterly results for year 2025, which topped analyst estimates on both lines, but its soft guidance for the remainder of the year rattled investors. Intel reported revenue of $12.7 billion, flat year over year. The Client Computing Group, which accounted for over half of total sales with $7.6 billion, continued to face intense competition from AMD and Apple’s (AAPL) custom chips. Meanwhile, revenue from the Data Center and AI segment rose 8% to $4.1 billion, fueled by steady demand for server processors, though Intel still lacks a competitive AI GPU. Gross margin fell to 39.2%, down nearly six percentage points from 45.1% a year earlier.

On the profitability front, Intel posted a net loss of $800 million, or $0.13 per share, compared with a $400 million loss, or $0.09 per share, in Q1 2024. This wider shortfall reflects continued investments in advanced manufacturing and R&D as Intel works to strengthen its competitive position.

Moreover, free cash flow remained negative as elevated capital and operating expenditures weighed on liquidity.

“The first quarter was a step in the right direction, but there are no quick fixes as we work to get back on a path to gaining market share and driving sustainable growth,” said CEO Lip-Bu Tan on the earnings call.

For Q2, Intel forecasts revenue between $11.2 billion and $12.4 billion, with gross margin around 36.5%, below the $12.82 billion and 37.5% that analysts modeled. Management reiterated plans to cut CapEx to $18 billion and OpEx to $17 billion in 2025.

What Do Analysts Say About Intel Stock?  

The analyst community has taken a cautious stance on Intel stock for now. 

Recently, Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated his “Hold” rating on Intel and set a $23 price target. Arya points to intensifying competition and execution risks as Intel scales its foundry operations.

Evercore ISI’s Mark Lipacis also maintains a “Hold” stance, while Seaport Global took a more bearish view by initiating coverage with a “Sell” rating on Intel. Cantor Fitzgerald’s team, which attended Intel’s Foundry Direct Connect event, upheld their “Neutral” rating and $26 target, noting that management’s update on the 18A process and partnerships under CEO Lip-Bu Tan provided clarity but few surprises.

Overall, Wall Street maintains a consensus “Hold” rating on Intel stock. Of the 37 analysts covering the name, only one rates it a “Strong Buy,” while 31 recommend holding and five suggest a “Strong Sell.” The stock currently trades near the average price target of $22, though the Street-high target of $28 points to a potential upside of 30%.

The Bottom Line

Intel’s market share slumped to a two-decade low amid surging Arm and AMD competition, underscoring growing serious headwinds. However, full-year consensus estimates by analysts call for approximately $50.5 billion in revenue and $0.30 in adjusted EPS, reflecting market expectations for a modest rebound as Intel ramps its 18A process and commercial foundry initiatives. With the Altera divestiture set to bolster the balance sheet and new customer wins for the 18A node, Intel’s ability to translate these investments into market-share gains will be critical to meeting or exceeding these projections.